According to the preliminary estimates of the Central Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Hungary in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year increased by 5.0% to 4.8%, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.
ING Bank's leading analyst Pier Vyvirasz commented that the growth of Hungary's GDP in the third quarter exceeded market expectations. In his opinion, the unexpected situation was far better than anticipated agriculture, and the value added in the construction industry would be more dynamic than the production figures. Despite the impossibility of industrial productivity, it may be surprising that external trade services can be explained by further foreign trade turnover.
Regardless of the stunning people, Pierre Vievascz believes that in 2019 the Hungarian economy will lose momentum, as the expected deterioration in external demand can not be overlooked. However, this year Hungary's economy should be strong enough in the fourth quarter, which will make up to one-and-a-half year growth records. Given the positive barriers to the last two quarters, it would not have been surprising – he closed his comment.
According to David Nemmet, Senior Analyst at K & H Bank, new data are amazed by slower market expectations. In his opinion, the service sector will strengthen the third quarter and will contribute to the construction industry growth in comparison with the previous quarter. Growth in demand and investment in retail continues to activate the economy from the consumer side.
In the next phase, GDP growth will slow down by 4.5% and this year will be 3.4% surplus. As David Neittech mentions, domestic engines remain, which means that domestic consumption and investment will continue to drive the economy, while the external environment will decline next year.
The Banker analyst Jerzy Savan also boosted market and construction industry explosions, and surprised by the high yields of maize, sunflower and grape crops in the last quarter compared to the third quarter of GDP. Industrial productivity had a significant impact on growth.
From the point of view of consumption, domestic consumption has been steadily rising due to the increase in real wages, and growth in investment can dramatically increase the support for construction and import data. However, the growth of foreign trade slows down as the trade surplus has declined considerably and revenue is partially offset.
Growth may remain at about 5 percent in the fourth quarter, so Tackarbank's analyst plans to increase its forecast for 4.6 percent this year to 4.8 percent, and next year it will rise from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent.
According to CIB Bank experts, the expected annual growth rate before expected, given the revision of the first half-year data published in the third quarter, may or maybe exceed 4.5-4.6 percent.
Explains the role of tourism in the third quarter as well as the growth of GDP in the first half of the year. In addition, the share of agriculture and construction was also remarkable. Expansion of large demand was ensured by the strengthening of domestic demand and further expansion of household consumption, with a strong salary dynamics being one of the outstanding engines. As part of the growth, the role of European activity can be lower than expected, with the focus on domestic factors, with the emphasis on the market consensus and the dynamics of German GDP, which lag behind in the second quarter.
According to the senior macroeconomic analyst of Erste Bank, Nayest Orsala, there is a big question of how net exports contributed to growth. The competitive product of the sector, the fall in trade balance and the economic downturn in the Eurozone and Germany suggested a moderate increase in exports. The export weight of the service is rising in the total volume of exports, which is likely to be due to weak export commodities.
According to the latest data, this year growth is expected at the level of 4.3%, and the expected growth rate this year will not be significant due to the intensification of domestic demand.
– MTI –