LONDON (Reuters) t
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Friday that prospects for oil demand in the year 2019 have become gloomy due to the worsening of the global trade perspective, although growth will be supported by stimulus packages and developing countries by 2020.
The Paris-based agency, which coordinates the energy policy for industrialized countries, has revised its 2019 demand growth forecast for 100,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day, but said growth would increase to 1.4 million barrels per day 2020. year.
"The main focus on demand for oil, with poor economic confidence … the consequences for the demand for oil are clear," the agency said in its monthly report.
"The aggravation of trade expectations is common in all regions," she said.
Forecasts of oil demand growth are assuming US and Chinese tariffs for goods in 2018, but the agency said it did not take into account other US charges released in May.
The agency also attributed the weak growth in demand in the first half of the year to a slowdown in the petrochemical sector in Europe, higher than the average temperatures in the northern hemisphere and the stagnating demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States.
Growth in demand is likely to recover to 1.6 million barrels in the second half of the year thanks to government measures to curb economic slowdown and increase spending in underdeveloped countries.
"Packaging stimulation will likely support short-term growth in demand.
Moreover, large central banks have stopped or slowed down interest rate growth, which will support growth in the second half of 2019 and 2020.
The US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, an agreement to end OPEC with its allies, a conflict in Libya and attacks on two carriers in the Omani Bay have raised limited supply uncertainties, the International Energy Agency said.
Oil production in Iran fell by 210,000 barrels per day in May to 2.4 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the agency said.
Exports fell by 480,000 bpd to 810,000 bpd.
Growing production in the United States, as well as increased production from Brazil, Canada and Norway, will increase non-OPEC stocks by 1.9 million barrels a day this year and 2.3 million barrels in 2020.